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STORMcast Advisory 2019-18

Issued: 30May19

Time:  0630 EDT 

The STORMcasts shown here are intended for the students of UDHS's AGS and AES geoscience programs and are for educational/informational purposes only.  They frequently combine scientific concepts along with a sense of humor that often pokes fun at our behavior during weather events. While intended to be informative, the STORMcasts should never be used to make life and death decisions during severe weather events.  Follow the appropriate bulletins posted by the National Weather Service for appropriate actions during these events.


Current National Weather Service advisory map as of STORMcast issuance...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK - For the entire forecast region through tonight (again, again).  Possible strong to severe thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes possible.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH - For most of PA and central NJ from 2 PM Thurs. through this evening.  1"-2" likely in many locations with heavier downpours possible in large to severe thunderstorms.


(Map courtesy of NWS)
Good morning and haven't had a few thrilling days?  Personally, I've got enough new images for my meteorology course's Doppler radar lab to last a few years but at this point, what's another day?  I'll be scuba diving with my students all day today (I know, tough job) so I'm putting one last advisory out early this morning as we get ready for Day 3 of this severe weather threat.

Rain, Flood, Bail, Repeat

So, another day of heavy rains and impressive thunderstorms has left the region quite saturated and vulnerable to flash flooding as the frontal boundary from yesterday holds its position for one more day.  And, just like yesterday, another low pressure impulse will ride along this border and spark up strong to severe storms ahead of it before dragging the entire complex to the north (finally) tonight.

As models expected, yesterday's storms congealed into a whopper of a squall line that spread more or less west to east across the western and northern suburbs and into NJ right around 5:30 PM so overall, the forecast was quite solid.  The heaviest precipitation never really made it to the southern suburbs or DE since the overall movement was almost due west-east which is a bit unusual for us but today could bring a very similar pattern.  By the way, the pictures people have been sending of the storm have been quite impressive...more forced Ranger Rick Roadside Meteorology lessons for my students.  With only two weeks left in the school year, they're "thrilled", I assure you.

For Today

Timing and severity should be very close to yesterday since the position of the frontal boundary is about the same which means the same areas that were hit hardest Wed. will be in the crosshairs again today.  The entire region needs to be on its toes but I think the main focus will still be the same spots as yesterday.  We should expect to see some possible loners roll in by late afternoon followed by another heavy, west-east oriented line in the 5-6 PM time frame.  This area of highest probability looks like it will also spread north into the lower Poconos as the low pressure sweeps through this evening.  If there is a silver lining, the low is dragging a cold front with it that will clear the region of the unstable boundary and we'll dry out nicely tomorrow.

Current focus of severe weather concerns from the Storm Prediction Center as of 1000 EDT.  Note widespread severe weather expectation is a bit lower than it has been the past two days.
  
SLGT Risk Continues



The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk of strong/severe weather today.  I'm 65/35 right now on another Tornado Watch for today since we've still got mid levels of the atmosphere that will support some decent spin but the tornado threat should be a bit lower than Tues.-Wed. (at least as of right now).  I won't get another chance to take a look at this until afternoon though so listen for the posting of these alerts in the early afternoon by the NWS.  At least the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is definitely coming.   

Again, the strong potential for severe weather exists later today and just about anytime after about 2 PM will be volatile.  Use extreme cuation if you have outdoor plans.  If the weather starts to go bad, it could go real fast.

For now, off to the pool.  I'll be in the STORMcast Center all afternoon today since its Thursday so if anyone wants to watch the fireworks, you're welcome to bring the coffee and donuts.  Have a nice day everybody.

rs

0700